mercredi 10 février 2010

PIGS européens vs PIGS américains

Les PIGS, vous savez bien maintenant, c'est : Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain.

Mais comme je l'écrivais l'autre jour il faut relativiser ces problèmes et les mettre en perspective. Je citais en particulier la Californie.

Il se trouve que Barry Ritholz de Big Picture (qui est une des meilleures sources disponibles sur le web selon moi), est du même avis :

Voici ce qu'il écrit , avec une point d'humour sur la fin (c'est vrai, pourquoi la Californie ne rejoindrait pas l'Union Européenne, pour être renflouée par l'Allemagne ? Moi je vote pour...):

Insolvent European vs American States

By Barry Ritholtz - February 10th, 2010, 9:33AM
While all the investing world seems to be utterly fixated on the outcome of Greece’s solvency woes, perhaps we need to step back and put this into perspective.
Portugal, Ireland, Italy Greece and Spain are in varied degrees of difficulty; but how significant are the PIIGS’ debts to the world’s economy? (If they require a workout, perhaps they can what we do. Give them lower rates and an extended term and/or a cramdown to their lenders).
In contrast, consider the distressed United States: How do our own economic “pigs” measure up? In terms of economic importance relative to the world, aren’t the bigger US States that are in deep distress more important (GDP sizewise)?
Consider the size of the budget issues and debt load in dollar and percentage terms for just these six states relative to their European cousins:
You Can’t Put Lipstick on These PIGS:
CaliforniaBudget gap (as a % of the total budget): 22%Gap: $22.2 billion
New YorkBudget gap (as a % of the total budget): 9.8%Gap: $5.5 billion
FloridaBudget gap (as a % of the total budget): 19.9%Gap: $5.1 billion
New JerseyBudget gap (as a % of the total budget): 7.7%Gap: $2.5 billion
ArizonaBudget gap (as a % of the total budget): 19.9%Gap: $2 billion
NevadaBudget gap (as a % of the total budget): 16%Gap: $1.2 billion
All data for fiscal year 2008Source Businessweek
All by itself, the insolvent nation-state of California is the 8th largest economy in the world. Its the size of France. According to the CIA Factbook, Greece is number 34. That is a lot of hyperventilating about a relatively small impact to global GDP. Italy is 11, Spain is 13, Portugal is 50, and Ireland is 56.
Additionally, in the US, we have 43 of the 50 states in some form of financial distress.
Perhaps the solution to California’s woes is for Arnold (who is from Austria) to have California join the EU. Then, they might qualify for a bailout from Germany . . .

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