mercredi 27 février 2008

New records are getting broken

Gold is currently at 958$ an ounce.

EUR/USD is now above 1.50, at 1.5124 at the close of Europe's stockmarkets.


After I wrote my last predictions about Gold last months, I looked again at the seasonality data and I realized that I had made a mistake. The seasonality peak was actually earlier than I thought.



But Gold is actually going higher even in the face of a weak season.

mardi 26 février 2008

An excellent commentary about Gold

I took it from a commentary to a marketwatch article concerning IMF Gold Sale.

We will have to check later if it is correct: 1250$ target on this run then a correction to about 700$.

Long Term Target about 5000$

Here is the link http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-drops-report-us-backs/story.aspx?guid=%7BEF0E8443%2DA6E1%2D4B89%2DB7A4%2DE7874836DC2C%7D&dist=TNMostRead#comments


by RowWhack 8 hours ago
DEFICITHAWK - even f* nuts can be right sometimes (for wrong reasons even, but right nonetheless)..it seems you will buy gold when everyone is bullish at the peak. I don't agree with the conspiracy theories necessarily, but there does seem to be enough smoke to consider there may be a fire. A wise man will always consider all ideas without necessarily subscribing to them.
I was a stock bug and now am a gold bug (until stocks or real estate becomes cheap) and here are some points to consider:
1. Gold is going to $1250 and no more on this run..then it will be $780 (maybe even $680) before it is $1650 (no matter what Sinclair says). Eventually $1650 is too low..think $5K plus (by 2011-12). $1650 is probably the fair value of gold per Sinclair's formula, but fair value is irrelevant to market perception.
2. You buy paper gold to trade..you buy physical gold to protect yourself and keep it off paper..Most governments would not buy gold in the modern age (not as a reserve anyway)..they will confiscate it if they need it. In countries like China and India, most people save in gold, not just because of hedging against inflation, but also because they can hide it from the government. It cannot be confiscated because it is buried somewhere, so China/India CBs may buy eventually. That is when you should be selling..there is not enough gold in the world (nor is it costly enough yet) for the CBs to hold a reasonably large reserve ratio in gold, so by the time they get to it, the reserve status for gold is already priced in by the free-market system. Yes, governments manipulate and all that, but they eventually are just a player in the markets and markets discount them. Look at interest rates, Fed is lowering but long yields are rising, so instead of the Fed helping homeowners, it is screwing them over more. Markets may not be efficient as prescribed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, but they are also not something anyone can control/manipulate.
3. Other commodities can only be traded or held as paper assets..I don't think you want to store a few tons of wheat or sugar (maybe if you are a heavy drinker and like to make your own potions). That is where gold comes in..it is the ultimate anti-establishment asset. If you think your government is screwing you, you buy gold and physical gold. There is a huge difference between precious metals and other commodities including base metals. All other commodities are derived from supply and demand over long-ish periods of time, if the price is too high the usage is reduced or production increased (if possible). Over short periods, there is hoarding etc. by speculators but in the long term commodity prices moderate. When it comes to precious metals, no price is too high because the price is not determined by utility. The concept of diminishing marginal utility does not apply to precious metals because they are pretty much useless metals. If they were useful, their value would be tied to their use and hence they would never be able to serve as money. Money has to be useless (non-utilitarian). As a result, in the right circumstances, when precious metals need to be perceived as "monetary assets" rather than "financial assets" one could theoretically perceive infinite demand (everyone wants more money, right?) and limited supply. That is why IMF sales do not matter - the demand side of the equation will overwhelm anything from supply side. There is 150,000 tons of gold out there, not being used for anything and that is all part of the supply equation (overhang). With precious metals, demand is the only variable of significance since supply is 1% or so every year. Precious metals proceed from a "commodity" phase to "financial asset" and final "monetary asset" phase. Monetary asset phase is where, precious metals are treated as proxy money but not real money. We are still in the financial asset phase..the monetary phase will be parabolic and will be good for owners of gold only if the fiat system does NOT collapse. If it does collapse and precious metals are again used as money, then all that a gold bug has been able to do is preserve his/her wealth, not increase it. A true gold bug should not want the fiat system to collapse, only come very close to it.
Sorry about the long thesis..but I hope everyone got something out of it (just to consider..thou shalt not judge)

lundi 18 février 2008

Dividende 2009 d'Euro Ressources: essai d'estimation

On ne peut pas savoir encore quel sera exactement le dividende 2009.
Par contre on peut avoir un début d'estimation du bénéfice 2009.

Sachant que le hedge aura été racheté, avec le cours de l'or actuel (905$ l'once) et le rythme de production Rosebel actuel (83 000 onces/trimestre), et en comptant 2 Millions de charges opérationnelles.

On obtient 11 Millions de Bénéfices.
Soit 0,18 euros par action

Il n'y a pas d'erreur, cela fait un PER (2009) de 5.

Ce qui, tout le monde peut en convenir, est TRES bon marché.

samedi 16 février 2008

Un mot à propos de cette semaine...


Je ne suis pas un adepte des théories de la conspiration en général, et je ne manie pas systématiquement le mot « manipulation ». Mais il y a des moments où celle-ci est indéniable.

Cette semaine a été la preuve ultime que certains spéculateurs, probablement regroupés, manipulent à leur gré le cours de l'action Euro Ressources en utilisant tous les canaux d'information dont ils disposent (y compris ce forum qui dispose d'une bonne audience)

Avant d'aller plus loin, je précise tout de suite qu'à titre personnel, je n'ai pas pris récemment de position à Court Terme pour anticiper tel ou tel mouvement. Ma position de base reste une position de Long Terme. Ces manipulations n'ont donc pas eu d'impact pour moi.
Et elle ne devrait pas en avoir pour tout vrai investisseur de Long Terme : les fondamentaux sont de plus en plus bons et finiront pas être reflétés dans le cours.

Mais je ne m'empêche pas de consulter le forum et d'émettre un avis de temps à autre.

Mon intention première est d'avertir les petits investisseurs, anciens et nouveaux et de les mettre en garde contre des réactions intempestives qui joueraient contre eux-mêmes et en faveur des manipulateurs.

Je pourrais très bien profiter de leur désarroi temporaire en posant des ordres d'achat plus bas, tout en dénigrant l'action, mais je préfère (et de loin) être transparent, et surtout, honnête.
Mes recommandations n'ont jamais eu comme but d'influencer le cours (elles ne l'influencent pas d'ailleurs).

Mais pourquoi y a-t-il manipulation ? Et comment peut-on arriver cette conclusion ?

Plusieurs canaux d'information, et ce forum en particulier, ont répandu la semaine dernière des messages de plus en plus nombreux encourageant le public à spéculer sur la publication des résultats le 15 février.

A l'origine de cette date, ils se basaient sans doute sur la période habituelle de publication (1mois et demi après la clôture du trimestre).
En réalité, la date de publication des résultats n'est jamais annoncée à l'avance pour Euro Ressources. De plus, les résultats annuels sont toujours annoncés plus tard que les résultats trimestriels.

Mais cette date répétée encore et encore avec des prévisions toujours plus optimistes a entraîné l'afflux de nouveaux acheteurs et a fini par mettre le feu aux poudres vendredi. Pour permettre à ceux qui avaient acheté de revendre immédiatement avec profit.

Par ailleurs la manipulation des canaux d'information se fait en même temps que la manipulation du Carnet d'ordre (déplacements concertés de blocs d’achat ou de vente par exemple).
Etant donné le peu de liquidité d'une valeur comme EUR, il est tout à fait possible de le faire pour quelques particuliers bien dotés et bien organisés.

La preuve que cette manipulation était basée sur la date vient du fait que le soufflé est retombé immédiatemement lorsque la réponse au mail à la direction d'Euro a été publiée sur ce forum par Antho79 (qui doit être remercié pour cela)

Cela prouve bien, si il était encore nécessaire que les forums reflètent très bien le niveau d'information disponible et le sentiment prévalant sur des petites valeurs comme EUR.

Aux investisseurs de Long Terme, je conseille d'être patient et de ne pas y prêter trop attention (c'est à dire de ne pas suivre ces aléas au jour le jour)
Dans les jours qui viennent, il est probable que de nouvelles attaques baissières seront orchestrés de façon à racheter plus bas et répéter l'opération. Ne vous y laissez pas prendre. Profitez en au contraire pour acheter comme vont le faire les manipulateurs de forum.
Ou bien la hausse va reprendre dans un contrepied magistral.
En réalité, comment prédire le comportement CT avec tant de manipulations ?

Je répète en tout cas mon conseil d'accumulation dans une optique de Long Terme sur les niveaux de 0.85-0.88 (cette recommandation est toujours en Plus Value pour l'instant).

Ce qui est probable c'est que la spéculation et donc la manipulation va battre son plein d'ici à la "vraie" date de publication des résultats.

Pour finir : un message aux Swing Traders ou Day Traders:

Le Swing Trading en soi n'est pas condamnable. Il peut même être très rémunérateur, si ce n'est son défaut d'être trop risqué en cas d'événements imprévus.
Ceux-ci finissent d'ailleurs toujours par arriver sur une small cap, tôt ou tard (par exemple les dépassements de seuil d'investisseurs institutionnels). Et dans ce cas tout l'intérêt du Swing Trading est effacé.

Par contre, la manipulation d'information et du carnet d'ordre quant à elle, est illicite, même si elle n'est pas régulièrement condamnée. Si elle se poursuit de façon trop flagrante, les autorités peuvent sévir.

A bon entendeur…

samedi 2 février 2008

Is this the end of the Party ?

Yesterday, Gold corrected by 2%.
The most recent participants in the rally were really scared.

Do I think this is a major market top ?
-Not Yet

I think we still have about 1 month to go, and this last leg might take us to about 970

And the rally in the junior gold stocks might happen during this last period.


Then there might be a significant correction towards 700 $

That's my humble opinion anyway...

Article of the day

THE DOUBLE WHAMMY OF GEOPOLITICAL GLOBAL GOLD GAMES
by Antal E. Fekete

Even the most rabid silver bugs admit the possibility that the Chinese are the Big Silver Shorts. This suggests that the Big Gold Shorts are also governments. Neither are naked by any stretch of the imagination. The double whammy of gold and silver accumulation by unnamed governments is the big puzzle of the present financial crisis in the world as it holds the key to the resolution.

For a better understanding of the Chinese silver picture you have to know a little background of the role of silver in China. The facts are as follows.

China has been on a silver standard since time immemorial. China stayed on the silver standard after other trading nations of the world demonetized silver and embraced the gold standard at the end of the 19th century. China's external trade was insignificant, but the volume of silver currency for domestic use must have been enormous. In addition, there was an avalanche of silver from abroad raining on China. As the silver price fell over 75 percent from $1.29 in 1873 to $0.25 by 1932 (with a brief spike back to $1.29 at the end of World War I), other governments were dumping silver on China mercilessly. China was the only country on the silver standard and the Chinese central bank had to take all the silver offered to it at a fixed price. This situation lasted right up to 1949 when the Communists took over the government. In fact, several Western historians blame the Communist victory on the unprecedented silver inflation that Western governments inflicted on the Chinese economy by their insane silver dumping policy before World War II.

Nobody knows how much silver the Chinese Communists found in bank vaults and in the safe deposit boxes of Chinese merchants who fled the country, when they took over the mainland. Nobody knows how much silver is still hidden in the mattresses of Chinese peasants. The amounts must be enormous. The best estimate is that most of that silver has never been consumed and still exists in monetary form. China's primitive economy under Mao was in no position to put that silver to industrial use. All that silver is now at the disposal of the Chinese government that could easily buy up silver coins scattered around the cities and in the countryside, at the present rising price of silver.

China is the only country in the world that has consistently run trade surpluses since 1950. As far as it is known, silver never figured in China's exports (except re-exporting foreign-owned refined silver.) Why should the Chinese export silver, when they could export almost anything else? Silver to the Chinese mind is money. You don't export money unless you are forced to cover your trade deficit, of which China has none. China has always paid for its imports with exports, a smart thing to do, too.

The Chinese are alive to the fact that escaped the silver bugs in the West, that you can derive a silver income from your pile of silver by covered short selling, even while retaining physical control of your silver hoard. THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED BONANZA IN THE HISTORY OF MONEY. It has never before happened that you earn interest while retaining physical control of your money. Typically you have to release control of money in order to earn interest income, that is, you have to assume risk. Lending money necessarily involves risks: the borrower may default. But if you don't give up physical control, then you will escape the monetary debacle unscathed. Because of the imbecility of the managers of the paper dollar standard there exist durable risk-free profit opportunities in holding monetary metals in the balance sheet. The trick is: covered selling. That's possible because the price of monetary metals has been allowed to fluctuate. The price fluctuation of a monetary metal, like the flow-and-ebb of the oceans, represents energy. Energy that can be harnessed. Energy that can be harnessed only by those who understand monetary economics.

The Chinese are not stupid. They looked askance at the silver and gold demonetization farce perpetrated on a gullible world by Western governments. (Gold was demonetized 100 years after silver had been, in 1973.) They are not falling for the cheap trick. They hang on to their silver. They make most of the stupidity of their adversaries. Nor are they in a hurry to push the silver price to three or four digits in order to sell their silver for a quick profit in irredeemable dollars (which is what the get-rich-quick crowd plans to do). Rather, it is in their interest to derive constant and consistent income in silver from covered writing, or using other dynamic hedging strategies. Why should they trade their silver for dollars, when they have far more dollars already than they want?

From the point of view of the Chinese, a slow rise in the silver price (and a gradual rather than an abrupt depreciation of the irredeemable paper dollar) appears more desirable than an overnight jump in the silver price to three digits that would put an end to their lucrative silver income from covered writing. They certainly have the clout to dictate the pace of silver price appreciation, and probably also of paper dollar depreciation.

The Chinese are inscrutable. They don't show you their blueprint for the new international monetary system which they plan to impose on the world after the inglorious end of the paper dollar era. It may be a born-again silver standard. The Chinese are using their cash silver and the silver income derived from covered writing as a hedge for their exposure to irredeemable paper dollars to the tune of $1.3 trillion, by far the largest accumulation of dollars the world has ever seen. What they will lose on their paper portfolio they will gain on their cash silver position. They will probably gain much more. While the finance-capital of the world denominated as it is in paper dollars is programmed to self-destruct, the Chinese will control much of the liquid capital in the world after the dollar-debacle. They will be a great source of capital exports, if you can pay their price, that is.

The Chinese can earn their way in the world. They can work when work is necessary, and they can save when saving is called for. They are doing fine, thank you very much. You need not worry about the Chinese losing their kitty of $1.3 trillion invested in U.S. T-bills and T-bonds.
However, you had better start worrying about America which is no longer in control of its economic and financial destiny. It has let world monetary leadership slip out of its hands. America's industrial capital is in shambles. From the largest creditor it turned itself into the largest debtor. The light has gone out at the great American universities as far as monetary science is concerned. Through bribe, blackmail, and attrition all upright and serious monetary economists were bumped from their academic chairs. The Great Chinese Cultural Revolution was a picnic in comparison to the Great American Cultural Revolution eliminating monetary economics from the curriculum. Courses on money presently taught consist of pure Keynesian and Friedmanite bunk.

It is a farce to blame the present financial crisis on lax lending standards and rogue traders. What we see is the return of the chickens to roost. This crisis has been in the making for over a century, involving the so-called demonetization of both monetary metals. The move was inspired and led by the United States. In particular, the so-called demonetization of gold was designed to camouflage the default of the U.S. Treasury on its gold-obligations. The industrial nations of the West did not even say 'ouch' when America's default caused them losses measured in hundreds of billions on their holdings of dollars in 1971. They became accomplices eager to start milking their own savers and producers by joining the paper-money farce. The day of reckoning dawns.

America's plight is self-inflicted. Yet America could still turn the train of monetary events to its advantage, reclaiming monetary leadership, if it opened the U.S. Mint to gold and silver. It should do it before China or Russia opened theirs. Unfortunately, there does not seem to exist one grain of wisdom in Washington to see this, let alone to do this. It would take the election victory of the maverick candidate, Dr. Ron Paul, Minority of One in the House of Representatives, to pull it off. It is certainly a proof of the American genius that great crises produce great men who are capable of dealing with them. If the Chinese beat America to the finish line by opening their Mint to silver, then the silky metal would be the international currency of the future.

Next to the Chinese the Russians are the most inscrutable players, ganging up against America's monetary hegemony. Their turf is gold. Perhaps it will be the Russians who will beat America to the finish line by opening the Russian Mint to gold, even before the Chinese open theirs to silver. Either way, America would be left in the lurch, denuded of its industrial capital, its savings, but left with a pile of worthless paper, and paper-worshippers in charge of the Treasury, and in charge of teaching monetary economics at all levels.

America can then embark on the arduous path to accumulate capital from scratch, while Russian and Chinese capitalists will be producing goods in spanking new plants, aided by spanking new equipment, complemented by shiny gold and silver pieces to trade their products world wide.
It is past wake-up call. To save itself, America had better listen to the message of Ron Paul who, in a counter double whammy, would open the U.S. Mint to both gold and silver if elected President.

GOLD STANDARD UNIVERSITY LIVE

Is this the end of the party ?

Yesterday, Gold corrected by 2%.
The most recent participants in the rally were really scared.

Do I think this is a major market top ?
-Not Yet

I think we still have about 1 month to go, and this last leg might take us to about 970

And the rally in the junior gold stocks might happen during this last period.


Then there might be a significant correction towards 700 $

That's my humble opinion anyway...

vendredi 1 février 2008

Article of the day

Gold Mining Stocks – What’s Wrong With The Juniors
By: Kenneth Gerbino

The reasons Junior mining stocks are underperforming are as follows:
1. The larger companies are getting all the action from newly converted gold enthusiasts and interested investors.
2. The junior market is still being weakened by insiders and promoters who are always sellers.
3. There are hundreds if not thousands of new promotional mining stocks being foisted on the readers of gold pages in the last three years and there is just so much money to invest in this sector. Therefore premium prices are diluted.
4. The invasion into the Hard Money camp by the Uranium companies. Every investor I know who owns gold and precious metal stocks but never owned a uranium stock now owns some. This diversion of capital to uranium diluted some funds that would have entered the Junior market.
5. Gold ETFs. Investor money can now go into an easy way to invest in bullion. This also could be argued that it helps the miners as it creates demand for gold.
6. Delays in drilling, engineering reports, permits.

A Big Rally Soon?

We are very near a major turning point in the mid tier and junior mining sector. The chart below shows the lowest junior mining valuation ratios in the last six years. We are using the TSX S&P Venture Index which is mostly mining stocks. The current ratios are at levels that in the past have signaled a major and substantial rise in the smaller gold and silver mining stocks.


As a reality check we can look at the ratio of the XAU to the Gold Price to see if this ratio is at a speculative level that may be signaling a major top in the making for all the gold stocks, which would of course include the juniors. During the above mentioned time period (September-November 2002) the Gold/XAU ratio was 4.8 (not shown). Today it is 4.8. This means the XAU gold stocks are tracking the gold rise at the same ratio when gold was $320, signifying a stable relationship. It confirms that the juniors on a relative basis are extremely undervalued and that a substantial rally should be starting soon.

New money into the gold arena is going into the big names. These managers and investors have not started to look at Canada and the junior sector yet. But as they eventually get more familiar and comfortable with the industry they start looking for smaller growth and value situations and that leads them into the junior sector. Quality juniors will eventually have a substantial move up from these levels but most others with speculative exploration programs will be left behind because of the stark reality that only one exploration stock out of a few thousand ever produces an ounce of minerals. This old ratio should change for the better as high metal prices, technology, more sophisticated exploration groups and increasing demand for resources increase their chances but it is still long shot investing.

The Three Amigos

Gold has many developments impacting it’s price and we have mentioned them many times. But currently we see three drivers at work that spell out a higher gold price: 1) The dollar has no where to go but down since interest rates are being sent lower and lower by the Fed to bail out the banks and our friends on Wall Street. 2) The credit/mortgage/real estate bubble dictates inflating the money supply or face possible immense institutional disasters. 3) Global money supply increases are continuing at a torrid rate especially in India and China.

Mining Analysis

The mining sector despite the volatility allows one to have a very clear idea of value. This intrinsic value is an inventory of basically rocks. These rocks contain a certain known percent of minerals. When companies spend $20-50 million with hundreds of drill holes and thousands of man hours on an area the size of 3-4 city blocks (maybe 400 feet thick, and underground) you have a pretty good idea what is in that mass of rock and what it is worth at various metal prices. When they do sophisticated testing on sometimes 5-10 miles of drill core, one can evaluate how easy or hard and costly it might be to extract the minerals.

Basic mining costs are known from hundreds of other mining projects: the cost to build the roads, buy crushers, build small towns for the workers, power and food costs etc. These are known factors and estimates can be made. Then it’s a matter of math and know how. That’s how you find winners. That is how you know if you have a good project. That is all we care about at my company on hundreds of projects and mining companies. You should try and do the same if you want to get serious about investing in this sector.

The key to making an above average return is competent evaluations and patience. This sometimes takes many years. Patience will outweigh the volatility of the gold and silver mining sector as intrinsic value eventually gets recognized. The laws of supply and demand let you sleep comfortably.

Inflationary Future

With all the money, people, and industrial progress globally we are confident that minerals (especially the precious ones) will be well above average investments for the next decade.

We are at a time when the central banks should be at least attempting to control inflation but instead most are printing more money. As the future unfolds and inflation accelerates, tangible assets especially mining companies with known resources of valuable minerals should be a top priority for investors.