mardi 18 mars 2008

Any prediction ?

I have been anticipating a Rally in the general stockmarket for some time now (and this is why I was not willing to bet on a Bear market in stocks) but it hasn't happened.

Maybe it is also because I lost some money in the summer of 2006 betting on a Bear market.

I am much more comfortable betting on gold stocks, even though they are quite anemic right now.

Ultimately I am confident that they will profit from the high gold price. It is just a question of time and shifting sentiment.

I have read somewhere that they will catch up only when both stocks and bonds fall, but it hasn't happened yet.

It is clear that market manipulation by the FED and the Plunge Protection Team is affecting sentiment. It is scary for stock bears.

So people become bullish almost reluctantly I should say.

But let's not forget that the trend is now clearly bearish

So I will consider this bearish position as a test : it is a small position for now, and I already exited half of it with a small loss.

I might reposition it a little higher. I know I should have this position as a complement to my gold stocks position. But let's be cautious. because it might be too late in the short term.


In other words, I am not ready to make any precise predictions for now.

Even the magnitude of Gold rise has surprised me.

I did not think it would reach 1000$ so soon and without a significant correction.

But now it might go farther before it falls: 1100-1150 ?

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