dimanche 6 avril 2008

Transition period

This is difficult to predict anything these days.

Gold has corrected heavily but has since rebounded a bit.
The general stock market has rebounded and a lot of people are clamoring that the worst is behind us.

So the Dow/Gold ratio has significantly rebounded, but it is still in a very steep downward spiral since July 2007, and still just below 14 as of today.
The low point was on 14th March at 12, when Gold was just over 1000$ and the Dow was just below 12000

Since the Summer 2007, the inverse correlation has between these two assets has finally caught up after deceiving so many people in May 2006 and March 2007.

The World of finance has been in panic mode since last summer.

On the Gold Stocks front the situation is extremely frustrating;
the bonanza that the hardcore enthusiasts expect is still nowhere to be found; but I think this is the exact moment when the opportunity is the best.

The Rally in the general stock market and a stability in Gold might produce a super rally for Gold Stocks, finally.

This is one of the possible scenario.

The other possible scenario is a new low for the Dow/Gold ratio in the short term, which might postpone the rally of Gold stocks, but produce even better performance in the medium term.

Or we might see a bit of both, which would mean a rally for the Dow, Gold and Gold stocks.
In that case it would be reminiscent of May 2006, except that in this period the stock market was near its highest.

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