Answering the previous question, I would say, basing myself on may recent reading and the latest that today I favor the deflation scenario.
It won't be a deflation that can be compared to the thirties, but it will be a serious slowdown and a bursting of the real estate bubble.
Actually I think the real estate, more than the oil price, will be the trigger to the slowing down of the economy.
The logical consequence will be that there won't be too much inflation, but a serious crisis in the US instead.
This crisis will then be exported to the rest of the world through the slide in the value of the dollar. China will be hard hit, but it might be a blessing in disguise since it will allow it to cool an overheated economy and redirect its exports and diversify its reserve towards the euro.
The world stock market might crash or slide as a consequence, including the european stocks where americans are heavily invested.
But the european economies will be less hit than the rest of the world, because it will simply stagnate.
As far as I'm concerned, real estate will also be hit in europe, especially in Spain, France and, most of all Britain.
But this scenario has to be confirmed. I will update it later.
In any case we cannot have a spiralling inflation and a bursting of the real estate bubble at the same time.
Moreover, if I focus on the European Union, I have trouble imagining that the ECB would let the inflation increase that much.
It won't be a deflation that can be compared to the thirties, but it will be a serious slowdown and a bursting of the real estate bubble.
Actually I think the real estate, more than the oil price, will be the trigger to the slowing down of the economy.
The logical consequence will be that there won't be too much inflation, but a serious crisis in the US instead.
This crisis will then be exported to the rest of the world through the slide in the value of the dollar. China will be hard hit, but it might be a blessing in disguise since it will allow it to cool an overheated economy and redirect its exports and diversify its reserve towards the euro.
The world stock market might crash or slide as a consequence, including the european stocks where americans are heavily invested.
But the european economies will be less hit than the rest of the world, because it will simply stagnate.
As far as I'm concerned, real estate will also be hit in europe, especially in Spain, France and, most of all Britain.
But this scenario has to be confirmed. I will update it later.
In any case we cannot have a spiralling inflation and a bursting of the real estate bubble at the same time.
Moreover, if I focus on the European Union, I have trouble imagining that the ECB would let the inflation increase that much.