From now on, I will try to write more regularly in this blog.
And I will start with an analysis of the Gold market.
My last analysis was a month ago, at an important juncture, because it was just after the rebound that I had (correctly for once) predicted.
At the time I was still cautious, but reasonably optimistic. I wrote that it would depend on the currencies market (which is much larger and more important).
Well the EUR/USD has reached new highs (and is now at a new juncture), but more importantly, the USD/JPY fell dramatically during the month of July. It broke some important support levels and these two factors (EUR/USD and USD/JPY) severely crippled the Dollar Index, which is also threatening important support levels.
At the same time, the stock market has suffered, and for the first time in two years, the Gold market has not followed.
It might be a sign that these two markets are finally going to diverge (which is their normal historic behavior).
Finally the price of Oil has hit new highs and has not suffered from US statistics showing a slowdown.
All in all, we are on track for a stagflation scenario which would be very bullish for Gold.
But I remain cautious, because Gold does have a tendency to disappoint.
This disappointment is only the consequence of the unique excitement that Gold creates.
In any case, the month of august should be interesting.
And I will start with an analysis of the Gold market.
My last analysis was a month ago, at an important juncture, because it was just after the rebound that I had (correctly for once) predicted.
At the time I was still cautious, but reasonably optimistic. I wrote that it would depend on the currencies market (which is much larger and more important).
Well the EUR/USD has reached new highs (and is now at a new juncture), but more importantly, the USD/JPY fell dramatically during the month of July. It broke some important support levels and these two factors (EUR/USD and USD/JPY) severely crippled the Dollar Index, which is also threatening important support levels.
At the same time, the stock market has suffered, and for the first time in two years, the Gold market has not followed.
It might be a sign that these two markets are finally going to diverge (which is their normal historic behavior).
Finally the price of Oil has hit new highs and has not suffered from US statistics showing a slowdown.
All in all, we are on track for a stagflation scenario which would be very bullish for Gold.
But I remain cautious, because Gold does have a tendency to disappoint.
This disappointment is only the consequence of the unique excitement that Gold creates.
In any case, the month of august should be interesting.