Je pense que la hausse récente des marchés action est le plus gros piège à investisseur depuis bien longtemps.
Les causes en sont largement politiques. Les élections américaines à venir qui s’avèrent difficiles à gagner pour les Républicains sont un enjeu énorme qui provoque des efforts financiers, institutionnels et médiatiques inimaginables pour un européen moyen.
Ayant vécu et travaillé aux Etats-Unis, je sais que les milieux d’affaires américains majoritairement dominés par les républicains ainsi que les institutions comme le département du Trésor, le département du travail, la FED, ont tout intérêt à éviter une panique financière juste avant les élections, alors que les signaux venant d’Irak, du Liban, de l’Afghanistan et d’Iran sont extrêmement inquiétants et en partie repris dans les média US. Si l’on ajoute à cela les signes d’éclatement de la bulle immobilière et le ralentissement de l’économie qui en découle, n’importe quel débutant en économie et en géopolitique peut s’apercevoir que l’horizon n’est pas vraiment éclairci et ne justifie pas les records boursiers et les nouvelles rassurantes qui sont claironnés sur les « networks ».
De la même façon, n’importe quel citoyen US était capable en 2002-2003 de savoir que la menace irakienne était bidon, que Saddam Hussein n’avait rien à voir avec Al Qaeda, et qu’il n’y avait pas d’armes de destruction massive dans ce pays, malgré ce que répétait encore et encore la machine propagandiste des télévisions.
Et pourtant le citoyen américain comme l’investisseur américain aujourd’hui gobe le discours qui lui est servi par les médias et peut-être même que les républicains réussiront à se faire élire début novembre.
On peut très bien arriver à tromper ce grand pays qu’est les Etats-Unis parce qu’il est bien formaté et bien conditionné par une consommation de télévision bien au dessus de la moyenne mondiale.
Seulement, la vérité finit toujours par ressortir.
L’Irak n’a pas été transformé en démocratie par l’armée américaine, parce que c’était tout bonnement impossible étant donné l’insuffisance des plans et des moyens qui ont été déployés et surtout du fait de l’arrogance de l’attitude américaine et de leur ethnocentrisme.
Mais de toute façon ce n’était pas l’objectif. L’objectif était de servir certains intérêts et surtout de répandre un rideau de fumée et de faire une démonstration de force.
Après un certain temps tout le monde s’aperçoit du désastre mais ce n’est pas grave : on est passé à un autre sujet. Et ainsi de suite…
De la même façon, les milieux financiers complices de l’administration US servent à répandre des rideaux de fumée et à maintenir l’illusion que l’économie va connaitre un « soft landing » que le Dollar est une monnaie forte et que les actions du Dow Jones sont un bon investissement.
Ils ont besoin de ces apparences là pour gagner les élections et se préparer personnellement et individuellement dans les meilleures conditions aux orages à venir. Car la vérité finira par apparaitre : les Etats-Unis ne sont pas tout-puissants.
Les chiites en Irak, la république islamique iranienne, le gouvernement russe de Poutine, la République Populaire de Chine, sans parler d’Hugo Chavez au Venezuela et le tyran/bouffon nord-coréen, n’ont pas les mêmes valeurs ni les mêmes intérêts que les Etats-Unis. Ils ne laisseront pas les américains perpétuer leur petit théâtre ambulant à leurs dépends.
Ces adversaires/rivaux des Etats-Unis ne sont pas des enfants de cœur et sont très éloignés des idéaux d’un démocrate européen. Mais ils existent et ne vont pas disparaitre du jour au lendemain. Certains d’entre eux défendent même des intérêts qui peuvent paraitre légitimes même si nous n’avons pas les mêmes valeurs.
Mais il ne s’agit même pas de jugement de valeur. C’est tout bêtement de la géopolitique.
Les Etats-Unis sont arrivés au point où ils butent sur des obstacles, et leur légitimité est en outre sévèrement battue en brèche.
Les aventures militaro-industrielles à venir pourraient s’avérer des désastres plus grands encore que l’Irak et causer leur ruine.
Vont-ils pour autant s’arrêter ?
Malheureusement leur illusion de puissance et de contrôle économique autant que militaire les conduira inévitablement à un faux pas.
Et ce faux pas pourrait bien être l’Iran qui ne cèdera pas ni aux menaces ni aux sanctions ni aux attaques préventives.
En fait, un seul de ces actes plongerait les Etats-Unis dans un désastre économique en propulsant le pétrole à des sommets.
Les iraniens le savent et jouent la provocation pour cette raison.
Les dirigeants américains aussi le savent. Et pourtant ils franchiront leur Rubicon.
Dans ces conditions impossible d'investir sereinement sur la plupart des marchés actions. Je privilégie l'Or malgré la manipulation à la baisse en cours, et en particulier la seule valeur qui permet de profiter de la hausse de l'or à venir dans un PEA : Euro Ressources (EUR)
lundi 9 octobre 2006
mercredi 20 septembre 2006
Entre la récession et l'inflation...
Entre la récession et l'inflation, Bernanke choisira toujours l'inflation ....
C'est philosophique...
Et les US choisiront de laisser glisser le Dollar plutôt que de se serrer la ceinture.
Seulement ils veulent que cette baisse soit progressive et ordonnée pour éviter l'effet panique.
De la même façon, ils veulent un atterrissage en douceur par un dégonflement progressif de la bulle immobilière et une modération de l'exubérance boursière.
Il sera difficile pour notre ami Ben B. de concilier tous ces objectifs.
Dans ces conditions, que faire ?
La médiatisation (aux US) de l'éclatement de la bulle immobilière me fait penser que celle-ci ne sera pas si brutale qu'on le craint.
Lorsqu'un phénomène est autant médiatisé en amont cela signifie que l'on fait tout pour l'éviter.
La rançon en sera une politique monétaire accomodante à moyen terme (il n' y aura pas de hausse des taux d'ici un moment quoi qu'on en dise) et un accroissement de l'inflation ainsi qu'une glissade (contrôlée si possible) du dollar.
En dépit des discours de vigilance, la FED sera toujours plus laxiste que la BCE au niveau des taux d'intérêt.
Par ailleurs les monnaies asiatiques vont également se réévaluer à la suite du yuan chinois, ce qui favorisera la baisse du taux de change pondéré du dollar.
Conclusion :
Bien que la FED soit accomodante il me parait risquer de miser sur les marchés actions européens dans ce contexte. Les perspectives de gain sont limitées pour un risque assez élevé en cas de chute du dollar.
Entre la récession et l'inflation, Bernanke choisira toujours l'inflation.
Par ailleurs, je ne parierais pas trop sur une poursuite de la chute de l'or.
Je pense que l'or a encore de beaux jours devant lui étant donné la politique de la FED et la baisse du dollar à venir.
Et je ne parle même pas des risques géopolitiques et des élections US à venir qui vont être facteur de volatilité, car il ne vaut mieux pas parier sur le pire (le pire n'est jamais probable). Mais c'est un risque qui rend l'attractivité des actions limitée et l'attrait de l'or intéressant à ce cours.
Je pense que cette baisse brutale de l'or est là pour effrayer les spéculateurs et pour épurer un marché devenu trop "chaud". Cela risquerait d'emporter l'adhésion du grand public.
En chemin vers 1000 $ l'once d'ici deux ans, on aura encore d'autres vagues de sévère correction.
C'est philosophique...
Et les US choisiront de laisser glisser le Dollar plutôt que de se serrer la ceinture.
Seulement ils veulent que cette baisse soit progressive et ordonnée pour éviter l'effet panique.
De la même façon, ils veulent un atterrissage en douceur par un dégonflement progressif de la bulle immobilière et une modération de l'exubérance boursière.
Il sera difficile pour notre ami Ben B. de concilier tous ces objectifs.
Dans ces conditions, que faire ?
La médiatisation (aux US) de l'éclatement de la bulle immobilière me fait penser que celle-ci ne sera pas si brutale qu'on le craint.
Lorsqu'un phénomène est autant médiatisé en amont cela signifie que l'on fait tout pour l'éviter.
La rançon en sera une politique monétaire accomodante à moyen terme (il n' y aura pas de hausse des taux d'ici un moment quoi qu'on en dise) et un accroissement de l'inflation ainsi qu'une glissade (contrôlée si possible) du dollar.
En dépit des discours de vigilance, la FED sera toujours plus laxiste que la BCE au niveau des taux d'intérêt.
Par ailleurs les monnaies asiatiques vont également se réévaluer à la suite du yuan chinois, ce qui favorisera la baisse du taux de change pondéré du dollar.
Conclusion :
Bien que la FED soit accomodante il me parait risquer de miser sur les marchés actions européens dans ce contexte. Les perspectives de gain sont limitées pour un risque assez élevé en cas de chute du dollar.
Entre la récession et l'inflation, Bernanke choisira toujours l'inflation.
Par ailleurs, je ne parierais pas trop sur une poursuite de la chute de l'or.
Je pense que l'or a encore de beaux jours devant lui étant donné la politique de la FED et la baisse du dollar à venir.
Et je ne parle même pas des risques géopolitiques et des élections US à venir qui vont être facteur de volatilité, car il ne vaut mieux pas parier sur le pire (le pire n'est jamais probable). Mais c'est un risque qui rend l'attractivité des actions limitée et l'attrait de l'or intéressant à ce cours.
Je pense que cette baisse brutale de l'or est là pour effrayer les spéculateurs et pour épurer un marché devenu trop "chaud". Cela risquerait d'emporter l'adhésion du grand public.
En chemin vers 1000 $ l'once d'ici deux ans, on aura encore d'autres vagues de sévère correction.
vendredi 25 août 2006
Speculation and politics
I recently discovered that the investment in gold is closely associated with political and almost philosophical ideas.
The "gold bugs" don't trust the Federal government and it determines in large part their thinking. This is something you have to take into account when you decide whether or not one follows their advice.
Personnaly, I find their ideas quite interesting because I am very disillusioned with the US Government as well and especially with the current administration. I am also disillusioned with the "American Way of Life", and its extreme materialism, the recourse to debt and the lack of ethics.
I used to be a great admirer of the US when I was a teenager and a young adult, until I really lived and worked there.
I saw so mush dishonesty and so many lies in 2002-2003, that I could not believe my eyes.
In a way, it was the perfect period to discover all this. There were all these financial scandals and the ensuing Stock Market slide, and then the preparation of the opinion for the War against Iraq, playing on the fear of terrorism.
When people link all this to the hidden inflation and the balloning deficits of America, I can really see what they're talking about
The "gold bugs" don't trust the Federal government and it determines in large part their thinking. This is something you have to take into account when you decide whether or not one follows their advice.
Personnaly, I find their ideas quite interesting because I am very disillusioned with the US Government as well and especially with the current administration. I am also disillusioned with the "American Way of Life", and its extreme materialism, the recourse to debt and the lack of ethics.
I used to be a great admirer of the US when I was a teenager and a young adult, until I really lived and worked there.
I saw so mush dishonesty and so many lies in 2002-2003, that I could not believe my eyes.
In a way, it was the perfect period to discover all this. There were all these financial scandals and the ensuing Stock Market slide, and then the preparation of the opinion for the War against Iraq, playing on the fear of terrorism.
When people link all this to the hidden inflation and the balloning deficits of America, I can really see what they're talking about
Psychology and investing (2)
Since last may, I made so many mistakes that I would have saved a lot of money just by doing nothing.
And I'm convinced a large part of these losses come from psychology.
Of course, bad luck and bad judgement also play a part.
But basically, this is the stress and the instability of opinion tha create all these losses.
Investing is really not that complicated. But you need to do it with serenity.
Right now I am convinced that I should simply stop.
But even this decision should not be rushed.
It's just that the pressure I am under is increasing.
I need to build confidence back gradually, by making a good decision at least once. Even if it does not make that much money.
And I'm convinced a large part of these losses come from psychology.
Of course, bad luck and bad judgement also play a part.
But basically, this is the stress and the instability of opinion tha create all these losses.
Investing is really not that complicated. But you need to do it with serenity.
Right now I am convinced that I should simply stop.
But even this decision should not be rushed.
It's just that the pressure I am under is increasing.
I need to build confidence back gradually, by making a good decision at least once. Even if it does not make that much money.
Psychology and investing
Some recent "mistakes" have led to fresh doubts about my fundamental analysis of the economy and my strategy.
These are of course short term and specific mistakes (meaning specific stocks), so they should not divert me from my long-term strategy (which is actually not so long-term, but more over a few months.)
Basically the goal is to find the kind of trend that has given me the kind of returns I had from January to April.
Right now there is not really a confirmed trend for a 3-6 months horizon.
The stocks are in a range , the gold trend is in a range, and the EUR/USD is in a range as well.
These three assets should go up in the medium term, especially if they break some major obstacles.
Actually of these three asset classes, gold in $ as a way to go, but might most probably go down within a few months.
EURUSD is the one that is closest to the resistance, and if and when it breaks will be a huge signal, that might give the direction to the other markets.
In the mean time, we can stay bullish on stocks who don't have a resistance in the short term and sit on our hands about gold.
Actually it might be reasonnable to stick also with the gold mine stock , since it seems to have found a floor and is going up relative to the gold price.
When the EUR/USD breaks its resistance, I can focus on shorting european stocks and buying gold calls and eurusd calls.
These are of course short term and specific mistakes (meaning specific stocks), so they should not divert me from my long-term strategy (which is actually not so long-term, but more over a few months.)
Basically the goal is to find the kind of trend that has given me the kind of returns I had from January to April.
Right now there is not really a confirmed trend for a 3-6 months horizon.
The stocks are in a range , the gold trend is in a range, and the EUR/USD is in a range as well.
These three assets should go up in the medium term, especially if they break some major obstacles.
Actually of these three asset classes, gold in $ as a way to go, but might most probably go down within a few months.
EURUSD is the one that is closest to the resistance, and if and when it breaks will be a huge signal, that might give the direction to the other markets.
In the mean time, we can stay bullish on stocks who don't have a resistance in the short term and sit on our hands about gold.
Actually it might be reasonnable to stick also with the gold mine stock , since it seems to have found a floor and is going up relative to the gold price.
When the EUR/USD breaks its resistance, I can focus on shorting european stocks and buying gold calls and eurusd calls.
mardi 22 août 2006
The Mogambo Guru
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2006/DRUS082106.html
Funny how this article adresses exactly the same point that I made yesterday.
Logically the threat of inflation should encourage us to borrow more. But as this article mentions, there might be a housing bubble bursting in the mean time.
If you borrow against a declining asset, it will hurt anyway, and the real interest rate will keep on going down anyway, so it will be better to wait.
Funny how this article adresses exactly the same point that I made yesterday.
Logically the threat of inflation should encourage us to borrow more. But as this article mentions, there might be a housing bubble bursting in the mean time.
If you borrow against a declining asset, it will hurt anyway, and the real interest rate will keep on going down anyway, so it will be better to wait.
lundi 21 août 2006
A preliminary answer
Answering the previous question, I would say, basing myself on may recent reading and the latest that today I favor the deflation scenario. It won't be a deflation that can be compared to the thirties, but it will be a serious slowdown and a bursting of the real estate bubble. Actually I think the real estate, more than the oil price, will be the trigger to the slowing down of the economy. The logical consequence will be that there won't be too much inflation, but a serious crisis in the US instead. This crisis will then be exported to the rest of the world through the slide in the value of the dollar. China will be hard hit, but it might be a blessing in disguise since it will allow it to cool an overheated economy and redirect its exports and diversify its reserve towards the euro. The world stock market might crash or slide as a consequence, including the european stocks where americans are heavily invested. But the european economies will be less hit than the rest of the world, because it will simply stagnate. As far as I'm concerned, real estate will also be hit in europe, especially in Spain, France and, most of all Britain. But this scenario has to be confirmed. I will update it later. In any case we cannot have a spiralling inflation and a bursting of the real estate bubble at the same time. Moreover, if I focus on the European Union, I have trouble imagining that the ECB would let the inflation increase that much.
Inflation or deflation ?
I realize now that most of the financial decisions I have to make now for the long term (for example, whether to buy an apartment on credit) depends on what the world economy is going to get in the next few years : inflation or deflation ? In case of inflation it will be better to de indebted at the current low rates. In case of deflation it will be better not to be indebted, especially since in this context, the value of the home will probably go down, or at least not rise further. Of course we can also imagine price stability. In that case the value of the investment alone will have to be considered. Which is an important factor in any case. Economics is a tricky science, and it is very difficult to predict anything in that area. But I feel it is necessary, and it is something that I like to do.
A preliminary answer
Answering the previous question, I would say, basing myself on may recent reading and the latest that today I favor the deflation scenario.
It won't be a deflation that can be compared to the thirties, but it will be a serious slowdown and a bursting of the real estate bubble.
Actually I think the real estate, more than the oil price, will be the trigger to the slowing down of the economy.
The logical consequence will be that there won't be too much inflation, but a serious crisis in the US instead.
This crisis will then be exported to the rest of the world through the slide in the value of the dollar. China will be hard hit, but it might be a blessing in disguise since it will allow it to cool an overheated economy and redirect its exports and diversify its reserve towards the euro.
The world stock market might crash or slide as a consequence, including the european stocks where americans are heavily invested.
But the european economies will be less hit than the rest of the world, because it will simply stagnate.
As far as I'm concerned, real estate will also be hit in europe, especially in Spain, France and, most of all Britain.
But this scenario has to be confirmed. I will update it later.
In any case we cannot have a spiralling inflation and a bursting of the real estate bubble at the same time.
Moreover, if I focus on the European Union, I have trouble imagining that the ECB would let the inflation increase that much.
It won't be a deflation that can be compared to the thirties, but it will be a serious slowdown and a bursting of the real estate bubble.
Actually I think the real estate, more than the oil price, will be the trigger to the slowing down of the economy.
The logical consequence will be that there won't be too much inflation, but a serious crisis in the US instead.
This crisis will then be exported to the rest of the world through the slide in the value of the dollar. China will be hard hit, but it might be a blessing in disguise since it will allow it to cool an overheated economy and redirect its exports and diversify its reserve towards the euro.
The world stock market might crash or slide as a consequence, including the european stocks where americans are heavily invested.
But the european economies will be less hit than the rest of the world, because it will simply stagnate.
As far as I'm concerned, real estate will also be hit in europe, especially in Spain, France and, most of all Britain.
But this scenario has to be confirmed. I will update it later.
In any case we cannot have a spiralling inflation and a bursting of the real estate bubble at the same time.
Moreover, if I focus on the European Union, I have trouble imagining that the ECB would let the inflation increase that much.
Inflation or deflation ?
I realize now that most of the financial decisions I have to make now for the long term (for example, whether to buy an apartment on credit) depends on what the world economy is going to get in the next few years : inflation or deflation ?
In case of inflation it will be better to de indebted at the current low rates.
In case of deflation it will be better not to be indebted, especially since in this context, the value of the home will probably go down, or at least not rise further.
Of course we can also imagine price stability. In that case the value of the investment alone will have to be considered. Which is an important factor in any case.
Economics is a tricky science, and it is very difficult to predict anything in that area.
But I feel it is necessary, and it is something that I like to do.
In case of inflation it will be better to de indebted at the current low rates.
In case of deflation it will be better not to be indebted, especially since in this context, the value of the home will probably go down, or at least not rise further.
Of course we can also imagine price stability. In that case the value of the investment alone will have to be considered. Which is an important factor in any case.
Economics is a tricky science, and it is very difficult to predict anything in that area.
But I feel it is necessary, and it is something that I like to do.
mercredi 16 août 2006
Outlook for the world economy (introduction
This blog will certainly talk a lot about the economy since it is one of my favorite subjects. Since the beginning of the year I have studied the stockmarket intensely and speculated with sometimes spectacular but overall negative results. In any case it sharpens my analysis of the economy because when you invest money you'd better be right about the fundamentals, even though the short term girations are more based on psychology than macroeconomics. This is actually something that I have to keep in mind.
Outlook for the world economy (introduction)
This blog will certainly talk a lot about the economy since it is one of my favorite subjects.
Since the beginning of the year I have studied the stockmarket intensely and speculated with sometimes spectacular but overall negative results.
In any case it sharpens my analysis of the economy because when you invest money you'd better be right about the fundamentals, even though the short term girations are more based on psychology than macroeconomics. This is actually something that I have to keep in mind.
Since the beginning of the year I have studied the stockmarket intensely and speculated with sometimes spectacular but overall negative results.
In any case it sharpens my analysis of the economy because when you invest money you'd better be right about the fundamentals, even though the short term girations are more based on psychology than macroeconomics. This is actually something that I have to keep in mind.
mercredi 9 août 2006
Poor Lebanon
Let's start with the situation in Lebanon.
This is a very sad one, and one which has the potential of making many people angry.
Lebanon was a country on its way to democracy and a prosperity that had previously earned it the nickname of "Switzerland of the Middle East". But everything is destroyed now and it is a considerable waste.
It seems that certain countries are cursed, like Iraq for example. But there's nothing irrational about that. These countries have weak states and a fragmented identity. They are artificial creations, and they have been the toys of foreign powers for a very long time. And they are strategically located, at the crossroad between several bigger powers.
But Lebanon itself is not so important. Iraq is far more important for example, because it has oil and borders Iran, the greatest power in the region. But symbolically it is very important. It confirms the bad reputation of the US in the region, and even the moderates cannot deny it. And so it can only encourage the radicals.
It also comforts the situation of Iran which is in a better position to negociate with the West, about its status, its safety, and, of course, nuclear weapons, which are its guarantee.
Everybody knows by now that the real conflict is between the US and Iran, with Israel as an advanced post of the americans.
Old Europe would like everyone to calm down and Russia and China use this situation to advance their strategic interests.
But, in short, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better
This is a very sad one, and one which has the potential of making many people angry.
Lebanon was a country on its way to democracy and a prosperity that had previously earned it the nickname of "Switzerland of the Middle East". But everything is destroyed now and it is a considerable waste.
It seems that certain countries are cursed, like Iraq for example. But there's nothing irrational about that. These countries have weak states and a fragmented identity. They are artificial creations, and they have been the toys of foreign powers for a very long time. And they are strategically located, at the crossroad between several bigger powers.
But Lebanon itself is not so important. Iraq is far more important for example, because it has oil and borders Iran, the greatest power in the region. But symbolically it is very important. It confirms the bad reputation of the US in the region, and even the moderates cannot deny it. And so it can only encourage the radicals.
It also comforts the situation of Iran which is in a better position to negociate with the West, about its status, its safety, and, of course, nuclear weapons, which are its guarantee.
Everybody knows by now that the real conflict is between the US and Iran, with Israel as an advanced post of the americans.
Old Europe would like everyone to calm down and Russia and China use this situation to advance their strategic interests.
But, in short, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better
A new beginning
Today I start writing in this blog again.
As intended, it will be about news, with a focus on international affairs and economics which are two of my favourite subjects.
There will be a little bit of philosohy and history as well, especially as it relates to today's politics.
Also, I am not a native english speaker, so I will concentrate on content rather than style.
As intended, it will be about news, with a focus on international affairs and economics which are two of my favourite subjects.
There will be a little bit of philosohy and history as well, especially as it relates to today's politics.
Also, I am not a native english speaker, so I will concentrate on content rather than style.
mardi 16 mai 2006
Pourquoi le dollar finira par chuter GRAVE
Le monde entier est en train de se rendre compte des faiblesses structurelles américaines et cherche de nouvelles valeurs refuge.
La tendance LT est clairement baissière pour le dollar mais l'apparition d'événements géopolitiques comme l'émergence de nouveaux géants économiques (Chine, Inde) ou de puissances régionales possédant ressources pétrolières et armes nucléaires (Russie, Iran) va précipiter la défiance à l'égard des Etats-Unis et du dollar.
Le problème est que les Etats-Unis, au lieu jouer l'apaisement et le jeu d'un monde multipolaire, cherchent en réalité à jouer sur les tensions et leur puissance militaire.
Pour finir, une citation :
«Les États-Unis sont en train de devenir pour le monde un problème. Nous étions plutôt habitués à voir en eux une solution. Garants de la liberté politique et de l'ordre économique durant un demi-siècle, ils apparaissent de plus en plus comme un facteur de désordre international, entretenant, là où ils le peuvent, l'incertitude et le conflit»
Emmanuel Todd, in "Après l'empire"
(Livre stimulant et prophétique à bien des égards)
La tendance LT est clairement baissière pour le dollar mais l'apparition d'événements géopolitiques comme l'émergence de nouveaux géants économiques (Chine, Inde) ou de puissances régionales possédant ressources pétrolières et armes nucléaires (Russie, Iran) va précipiter la défiance à l'égard des Etats-Unis et du dollar.
Le problème est que les Etats-Unis, au lieu jouer l'apaisement et le jeu d'un monde multipolaire, cherchent en réalité à jouer sur les tensions et leur puissance militaire.
Pour finir, une citation :
«Les États-Unis sont en train de devenir pour le monde un problème. Nous étions plutôt habitués à voir en eux une solution. Garants de la liberté politique et de l'ordre économique durant un demi-siècle, ils apparaissent de plus en plus comme un facteur de désordre international, entretenant, là où ils le peuvent, l'incertitude et le conflit»
Emmanuel Todd, in "Après l'empire"
(Livre stimulant et prophétique à bien des égards)
samedi 18 février 2006
"Helicopter Ben"
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Est-ce que le Dollar est en train de s'effondrer ?
Je suis de retour sur ce blog, initié il y a maintenant plus de 15 ans. L'occasion de faire le point sur les thêmes principaux qui ont o...
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Pour répondre à plusieurs lecteurs du blog qui ont posé la question, voici un petit topo sur la meilleure façon (à mon humble avis) d'in...
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Il y a quelques mois, au moment du litige avec Iamgold sur le montant des royalties,et sachant qu'un investisseur montait discrètement a...
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Bon, on est maintenant bel et bien en Septembre, tout le monde est rentré de vacances, je vais donc reprendre un rythme un peu plus intensif...
